Mike Murphy, the GOP strategist, said one time that he tells all his clients that the only poll that matters is the “Mike Murphy Poll,” which says that they are two points down until the day after Election Day. It’s smart. The client doesn’t campaign based on how the newspaper’s say that he’s doing that week, and his supporters don’t get lazy.
My advice to my fellow conservative’s is to apply the Murphy Poll to the Wisconsin Recall. Scott Walker, regardless of what the pollsters and media may tell you, is two points down in the polls.
I’m afraid that we’re celebrating a wee bit too early. Yes, primary night where Scott Walker got more Republican votes than all the Democrats got Democrat votes combined is good news. Most recent polls having him five points or so is promising. And having the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, who endorsed is opponent in 2010 and aren’t fans of the one reform at the center of the recall, endorsing him in the recall rocks as well…
Walker’s rematch with Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett was prompted by one issue: Walker’s tough stance with the state’s public-employee unions. It’s inconceivable that the recall election would be occurring absent that. And a disagreement over a single policy is simply not enough to justify a vote against the governor…
There are several possible reasons for this: 1) Walker overpromised, forgetting that there is only so much that any one politician can do to promote private-sector job growth; 2) the political turmoil in the state is inhibiting job creation (Walker’s argument); or 3) Walker’s policies are killing job growth (Democrats’ argument).
We think choices 1 and 2 are the most likely reasons. Walker’s policies simply haven’t been in place long enough to know whether they are to blame. Our view is that global trends, including the turmoil in Europe, have much more to do with whether Wisconsin’s companies succeed than the policies of a single politician. We also believe that, at the margins, the yearlong tantrum over Walker has been harmful.
That right there is the importance of the race and why we need to make sure we don’t celebrate before we actual win. Leftist political organizations are trying to recall him over a single policy dispute. If they win, they’re going to be empowered and bullying statehouses all across the country. Any elected official who is serious aboot and kind of actual reforms is going to think twice, lest have the unions fucking destroy them.
So no, Scott Walker is not up by five points. The results of last week’s primary are apropos of nothing. Having a left-ish leaning newspaper from his opponent’s hometown endorse him? Meh.
Scott Walker is two points down and is still in danger of losing this.
Now go forth and wreck #war.